A38 Derby Junctions costs leap up to over £646m
Graph showing scheme cost increases on page 77 of ORR National Highways financial monitoring data, July 2025. (£229m + £417m=£646m)
Stop the A38 Expansion campaign has discovered the cost of the A38 Derby Junctions scheme has leapt up 200% to over £646 million [1], a staggering rise from the £200 - £250 million forecast in 2019 [2]. They have condemned the Government’s decision to push ahead with the road expansion with the price tag so high.
The figure, confirmed by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) through National Highways data, dwarfs the £500 million threshold that led to the cancellation of the A1 Morpeth–Ellingham upgrade in January 2025 for being “poor value for money” and “unfunded”[3].
In stark contrast, the A38 scheme has been waved through in an announcement on 8 July 2025 by Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander [4], despite the fact that National Highways refused to disclose to the public what cost figures it gave to ministers [5]. Campaigners fear the government was presented with outdated numbers, as regional transport body Midlands Connect continued to promote the scheme using the obsolete £250m estimate in its lobbying material [6].
This is not the first time the A38 project has been mired in controversy. In 2021, the Government admitted in court that its original approval was unlawful, because it had failed to consider the impact of cumulative carbon emission increases the scheme would cause[7]. The project was sent back for a second planning examination yet ministers ignored calls to update the economic viability assessment and benefit–cost ratio before approving it again[8].
Campaigners had warned the costs of the scheme were outdated and didn’t account for inflation and treasury policy changes. Both the Conservative and Labour Governments ignored calls to update the economic assessment and benefit:cost ratio of the A38 scheme to determine if it is still a good use of public funds.
When the case returned to court in 2023, the judge agreed that the economic assessment and benefit:cost ratio were out of date, but ruled that the Secretary of State could approve it anyway[9]. Campaigners say this allowed a “zombie project”, a scheme that fails its own economic tests with exaggerated journey time [16] saving claims to stagger on at huge public and environmental expense.
“This is the definition of bad governance: approving a project you know is outdated, overpriced, pointless and destructive, just because it’s already in the pipeline,” said Dr Sarah Hobday, 60, retired consultant paediatrician from Derbyshire.
“It’s the opposite of responsible decision-making. The A38 will destroy over 11.8 hectares of mature trees, worsen air pollution especially around Markeaton roundabout and the Royal School for the Deaf, and lock Derby into higher carbon emissions for years, all while cheaper, less harmful alternatives have never been considered by the authorities. It seems they are determined to cause as much disruption, destruction, pollution and waste of public funds as possible.”
The decision to approve the A38 is more controversial given the Government’s simultaneous decision to pause Phase 3 of the Midland Mainline electrification due to claimed lack of funding[11]. This shovel-ready rail upgrade would bring nearly £400 million in economic benefits, 5,000 skilled jobs, and huge potential to cut emissions, increase rail freight plus improve capacity and journey reliability [12].
“The Government was right to cancel the A1 scheme when costs spiralled beyond £500 million,” said Callum Bain, telecoms engineer from Mackworth, Derby.
“But it’s hypocrisy to axe that project on cost grounds while giving the green light to an even more expensive, even more destructive scheme here in Derby.”
Now that the A38 Derby Junctions scheme’s cost has soared beyond £500 million hitting £646 million according to the Office of Rail and Road it will be classified as a Tier 1 project [13] in the Government’s Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) [14] This means it will require Treasury sign-off in addition to Department for Transport approval.
Crucially, the scheme must now have an Accounting Officer Assessment (AOA) which sets out whether the scheme represents value for money, is affordable, and is feasible. AOAs are required at key investment stages or when spending changes significantly. Campaigners say an AOA should be undertaken immediately given the drastic rise in costs, and that this process must be transparent and based on up-to-date economic information.
The campaigners called for the immediate cancellation of the A38 road project and the reallocation of funding to the Midland Mainline electrification, which they say will deliver greater economic, environmental, and public benefits. They also demanded that the full and updated business case for the A38 be made public before any vegetation clearance or construction is allowed to proceed.
“With a climate and nature crisis already unfolding, and public finances under strain, throwing billions at outdated road schemes while saying there’s no money to fund rail electrification is economic and environmental vandalism,” said Clare Wood, copywriter from Mickleover, Derby and supported the Stop the A38 Expansion Campaign grop.
Notes for editors
[1] Page 77 of ORR National Highways financial monitoring data, July 2025. https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2025-08/annual-assessment-of-national-highways-performance-2024-2025-web.pdf
[2] Estimated to cost up to £250 million in 2019, equivalent to £320 million in 2025 prices (Bank of England inflation calculator).
[3] “A1 dualling cancelled over £500m cost”, BBC News, 14 January 2025. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpdxvppgjj0o
[4] Announcement on 8 July 2025 by Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander https://www.gov.uk/government/news/green-light-for-over-50-road-and-rail-upgrades-supporting-over-39000-new-homes-and-42000-jobs
[5] National Highways FOI refusal, May 2025 https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/information_on_the_a38_derby_jun#incoming-3008487
[6] Midlands Connect lobbying materials promoting £250m estimate, circulated during 2024–25 infrastructure spending review period https://www.midlandsconnect.uk/media/opmfc4f5/accessibility-checked-keeping-the-midlands-moving-our-ris-3-recommendations.pdf
[7] 2021 court ruling, A38 scheme admitted unlawful by Government: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/kfk6eddzv427fu7rl3sjc/CO00642-2021-Consent-Order-to-Quash.pdf?rlkey=2nqfcukjeum1wzs35y7141rbu&dl=0
[8] Correspondence from campaigners to the Planning Inspectorate, 2022, urging economic viability update; no update undertaken. https://nsip-documents.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/published-documents/TR010022-001518-Binder3_Redacted.pdf
[9] High Court judgement, 2024: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mja556shdtt7bml5haxw3/AC-2023-BHM-000189-BAIN-V-SST-FINAL-JUDGMENT.pdf?rlkey=zl2b5zg5xuu3r4ya7zgparq20&dl=0
[10] Environmental Statement, A38 Derby Junctions scheme, National Highways, 2019.
[11] Rail minister, Lord Hendy claimed in evidence to the House of Commons Transport Committee on 16 July that "there isn’t the money" for electrification of the Midland Mainline. https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/16342/html/
[12] Rail Forum and Rail Industry Association joint letter to Rail Minister Lord Hendy, 14 July 2025. https://www.riagb.org.uk/RIA/RIA/Newsroom/Press_Releases/Midland_Main_Line_action_urged.aspx
[13] National Highways defines Tier 1 schemes as those above £500 million, requiring staged DfT approval as part of the Complex Infrastructure Programme. (ORR, 2024)https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-07/orr-nh-benefits-management-maturity-review-042024.pdf
[14] GMPP includes projects exceeding departmental budget limits or those that are strategically complex or novel, requiring HM Treasury sign-off. (IPA Annual Report, 2022–23) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64c91eaed8b1a71e86b05df3/IPA-Annual-report-2022-2023.pdf
[16] National Highways published a report in 2017 which found that congestion was made worse on dozens of major roads in England by a project to tackle bottlenecks. The pinch-point programme was started in 2011 to relieve congestion, stimulate growth in local economies and improve safety, but the report showed most schemes had failed to do this. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/791450/National_PP_Programme_Meta_Final_draft.pdf